LSU Tigers Set to Upset Favored Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville Showdown

As the No. 10 LSU Tigers (5-1, 2-1 SEC) head to Nashville to take on the No. 17 Vanderbilt Commodores (5-1, 3-1 SEC) this Saturday at FirstBank Stadium, the stage is set for what could be one of the most intriguing SEC battles of the 2025 season. Kickoff is slated for 12 p.m. ET, marking LSU's first early game of the year. Despite the Commodores entering as 2.5-point favorites according to betting odds, the Tigers have the talent and grit to pull off the upset and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Vanderbilt has been the surprise story of the SEC this year, riding a wave of momentum after impressive wins over South Carolina, Georgia State, and Utah State, though they fell short against Alabama in a 30-14 loss. Led by quarterback Diego Pavia, the Commodores' offense has been explosive, averaging over 45 points in their non-conference victories. Their defense, meanwhile, has stepped up, forcing turnovers and limiting big plays. This resurgence has oddsmakers giving them the edge at home, with the over/under hovering around 48.5 points.

But don't count out LSU just yet. The Tigers have bounced back from an early-season stumble, notching wins over Florida (20-10), Southeastern Louisiana (56-10), and Louisiana Tech (23-7), among others. However, their offense has shown inconsistencies, particularly in play-calling and decision-making that have stalled drives at critical moments. The offensive line has been a glaring weak spot, struggling against three-man fronts and allowing too much pressure on the quarterback—resulting in sacks, hits, and hurried throws on 61 dropbacks through the first five games.

Garrett Nussmeier will need to elevate his game to lead LSU to victory.
At the heart of LSU's potential turnaround is senior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. Through six games, Nussmeier has thrown for 1,413 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions, with a quarterback rating that reflects both his arm talent and areas for growth. While his numbers are solid, the offense as a whole has lacked rhythm, often failing to capitalize on red-zone opportunities and struggling with protection issues. Recent signs are encouraging, though—Nussmeier's health has improved, leading to a more confident unit in their last outing. For LSU to win, Nussmeier must step up, make quicker decisions under pressure, and get the offense in line. That means better synchronization with receivers like Kyren Lacy and CJ Daniels, exploiting Vanderbilt's secondary, and avoiding the costly turnovers that have plagued the Tigers at times.

Defensively, LSU has the tools to contain Vanderbilt's attack. The Tigers' front seven, anchored by Harold Perkins and Whit Weeks, should disrupt Pavia's rhythm and limit the Commodores' ground game. If LSU can force a couple of turnovers—something Vanderbilt has been prone to in tighter contests—the momentum could swing quickly.

Prediction: While Vanderbilt is the trendy pick as home favorites, LSU's superior talent and experience in big games will shine through. Expect Nussmeier to rise to the occasion, throwing for over 300 yards and three scores as the Tigers grind out a hard-fought 27-24 victory. This win keeps LSU in the SEC title hunt and reminds the conference why Death Valley's finest shouldn't be underestimated.